The data prior had Biden fairly comfortably (6% or more) ahead of Trump in “battleground”states (among them: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina).

The Change (a left of center outfit on the West Coast) poll found that Biden’s lead was now inside the margin of error in those same battleground states.

Polls are hard to do and Trump voters aren’t particularly keen on participating (increasingly, no one else is either).

SO my guess is that the real MOE is more like 4% or 5%, not 3%. Regardless, Biden’s lead in the “battleground states” is not as wide (if its wide at all) as it once was.

He’s in trouble and he doesn’t think he is in trouble. The worst of both worlds.



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John Ellis

Founder and Editor, News Items. Political analyst. Founder of and contributing editor to Bird News Items. Former columnist for The Boston Globe.